One thing is a given, so I have learned recently in asking questions about the congressional elections coming in November: the president is not going down without a fight, despite horrific polling that has steadily gotten worse. Those polls indicate that the Democrats will gain control of the House. The question is whether the Democratic Senate candidates now running ahead of Republicans five contested states will prevail in four, enough to gain a one-seat majority in that chamber, giving the party a chance to control part of the national agenda for the next two years. The prospect seems more likely than it did over the summer. The tide favors the Democrats as long as the president’s self-inflicted military and political disaster in Iran, among other fiascos, doesn’t go away. And it won’t without dramatic changes in his policies. What can Trump do to stem the Democratic surge that’s putting the Senate in play and his political dominance at risk? He seems to be befuddled to learn that US and Israeli bombs did not yield military success, even with the ill-advised assassination of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and many in his immediate family. As a result of the war, Iran is seen by many around the world to have gotten the upper hand in the Middle East. I have been told that the White House political operatives are planning as of today, as widely suspected and feared, to send Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents to predominantly Latino polling places in an overt effort to suppress the vote, legally or otherwise, in tossup states where a Republican is at risk. The similar use of National Guard and US military units, though once considered, is not currently in the cards. The mission is to do whatever possible, legal or not, to hold the Senate, and especially in Maine and Ohio, where Democratic candidates may narrowly turn out Republican senators, and in Texas, where Republicans have had a stranglehold on the state’s US Senate seats since 1993. A vital asset will be the ability to turn to the many Republican election deniers who have quietly gained control of state-run election monitoring offices over the past decade. As of today, I was told by someone with access to White House political data, there are twenty-six states where a total of ninety-six committed election deniers—those who still believe that Joe Biden did not beat Trump in the 2020 election—are running for office this year. The political players inside the White House are looking beyond the current election. They hope to put the whole country in play in future congressional elections. The validity and accuracy of US elections should be in the hands of officials whose objectivity and integrity are beyond question. The GOP’s strategy is to fill those offices permanently with political hacks. These men and women—2020 election deniers—may now be in charge, or could be, of certifying election results in critical states. (Trump briefly admitted two years ago on a podcast that he lost the election to Biden “by a whisker,” but he quickly recanted the statement, saying he was speaking sarcastically.) In the near term, I have been told that the Republicans will not give up on keeping control of the Senate, even if the initial returns go against them. Close elections will be challenged, and there are enough committed election deniers in place in enough states to pose election challenges that would force a delay in the seating of the new Senate on January 3, 2027, as mandated by the Twentieth Amendment of the Constitution. Perhaps, the more disruptive and fanatical thinking goes, a few of those duly elected Democrats would not be able to have their victories certified by early January and would not be allowed to join the new Senate. This mess would eventually fall into the hands of Senator John Thune of South Dakota, the respected Republican Senate majority leader who would be the one to decide when to bring an election dispute to the floor of the Senate for an up-or-down vote. The potential number of Democratic Senate seats that could be in dispute would make Thune’s mission, if not impossible, enormously time-consuming. The Senate leader could not invalidate a given states’s ballots for the Senate without also knocking out the voting for seats in the House of Representatives, which would be on the same ballot. Care would be essential in making a determination. The new Congress would be in familiar if unpleasant waters. It took 239 days of recounts and legal disputes after the 2008 election for Al Franken of Minnesota to be declared winner of his Senate seat by 312 votes, or .0001 percent of the total vote. Another factor in the current GOP angst is Senator Lisa Murkowski, a Republican from Alaska who is often in disagreement with her party and has served in the Senate since 2002. She has informed the Democratic leadership—specifically Minority Leader Charles Schumer—that she plans to caucus on some issues with the Democrats. Her defection could make the difference in a close vote on important presidential appointments or a major White House legislative program, even if the Republicans survive the election and maintain narrow control of the Senate. Invite your friends and earn rewardsIf you enjoy Seymour Hersh, share it with your friends and earn rewards when they subscribe. © 2026 Seymour Hersh |